After a week of turmoil, crude oil prices remained flat on Friday and stabilized near $75. Israel has indicated that it is prepared to retaliate against attacks from Iran, escalating tensions and supporting crude oil prices.
Let's now analyze the trend of crude oil prices.
The upward momentum of crude oil prices is clearly insufficient to support further breakthroughs or maintain this level, and a decline in crude oil prices is imminent. The MACD chart below also shows that the current energy column is above the zero axis, but after the last small peak, the energy column's momentum is clearly insufficient and is gradually falling.
This four-hour chart indicates that crude oil will still follow a downward trend. It is currently located at the middle rail of the Bollinger Bands, but due to its own insufficient momentum, there is a trend of falling below the middle rail. If it falls below the middle rail, the middle rail will become a new pressure to suppress the rise of crude oil prices. As it stands, the outlook for crude oil prices is not optimistic, with a trend of continued decline. Moreover, the international situation is also not favorable for crude oil prices. Let's analyze the various fundamental aspects of the international situation's impact on crude oil.
I personally believe that the international situation is more important for the price of crude oil because it is an indispensable and non-renewable strategic resource.
1) The rise in geopolitical risk premiums partially offsets the impact of market weakness on oil prices.
2) Three sources from Gulf countries have indicated that Gulf nations are lobbying the United States to prevent Israel from attacking Iran's oil facilities, as they fear that their own oil facilities may be targeted by Iranian proxies if the conflict escalates.
3) The U.S. inflation rate in September dropped to 2.4%, which is lower than the 2.5% increase in August but higher than economists' expectations of 2.3%.
4) The EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 5.8 million barrels to 422.7 million barrels, a 1.4% increase.
These factors are the core keys that have caused the continuous complex fluctuations in crude oil this week, with the Middle East situation once again becoming tense and supporting the recovery of oil prices.
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